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U.S. CFTC moves to fold event contracts into swaps regulations as legal fight rages
9.10.2026
The derivatives regulator is proposing a formal rule to include certain contracts traded on platforms like Kalshi's as swaps that require the agency's oversight
Polymarket’s $32M Nobel Market Didn’t Anticipate the Peace Prize Winner
9.10.2026
Traders put more than $32 million into Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market and sent Yulia Navalnaya to favorite overnight—but the winner, Navi Pillay, was not among the market’s named candidates. Kalshi’s market did not list her either.   Nobody Priced the Eventual Winner The Norwegian...
NFL Joins 39 States, Global Regulators in Pushing Supreme Court on Kalshi Case
8.10.2026
An international gaming regulators’ group, the NFL, and a coalition of 39 states have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear New Jersey’s case against Kalshi, arguing that split appeals courts have left sports betting rules depending on where a bettor lives.   A Wave of Briefs Fly...
Coinbase Users in Michigan Will Lose Sports Markets This Weekend
8.10.2026
Coinbase will switch off sports prediction markets for Michigan customers as Saturday begins, becoming the third platform to pull back from the state as its attorney general vows to bring “all sports betting into compliance with the law.” The Third Platform Shut Out of Michigan Coinbase...
NFL joins pushback against prediction markets as U.S. Supreme Court asked to act
8.10.2026
In opposition to federal oversight of the prediction markets, the National Football League has sided with states, Gary Gensler and one of the authors of the relevant law
Ethereum Price Cracks as 3 Prediction Markets Make Their Calls
8.10.2026
Ethereum’s latest selloff has prediction markets pulling in three different directions. Ether fell through $2,600 on Wednesday as U.S. spot ether ETFs logged a sixth straight day of outflows, yet Myriad traders still give ETH a 73.7% shot at hitting $3,000 before $1,500. Polymarket is far less...
Kalshi’s 15-Minute Gold Bets Top Ether as Fast Markets Drive Fees
8.10.2026
Kalshi’s public data shows its 15-minute gold markets traded more contracts than their ether counterparts in September, their second month of operation. The short-duration markets now bring in most of the exchange’s non-sports fees.   Gold Passes Ether in Its Second Month...
US Lawmaker Pushes Ban on Candidates Betting on Their Own Elections
7.10.2026
U.S. Rep. Don Davis has introduced the No Betting on Your Own Race Act, which would prohibit federal candidates from trading prediction market contracts tied to their own elections. Davis Seeks Ban on Candidates Betting on Their Own Elections U.S. Representative Don Davis, D-N.C., has introduced...
Kalshi Ends Federal Court Losing Streak With Partial Win Over Illinois
7.10.2026
A federal judge in Chicago blocked Illinois from enforcing its sports wagering license rules and a related criminal provision against Kalshi and Coinbase, but held off on the state’s new prediction market fees. It’s Kalshi’s first win in federal court since July. Judge Says a Swap...
Polymarket Is Rebuilding the Engine Under Every Bet Before November 2
6.10.2026
Polymarket has started live-testing Protocol V2, a ground-up rewrite of the smart contracts behind its prediction markets, with new markets set to switch over on Nov. 2. What Has Been Running Under the Hood Since 2019 Polymarket’s developer account introduced Protocol V2 on Monday as “a...
Polymarket Takes Dutch Gambling Regulator to Court Over Its Ban
6.10.2026
Polymarket is asking a Dutch court to overturn the Netherlands’ ban on its prediction market, arguing it offers financial products that belong under the country’s markets watchdog – an argument the regulator has already rejected. The Regulator Cited Polymarket’s Own Help Page...
Novig Says Trading Jumped 94% After Sydney Sweeney’s Viral Ad
5.10.2026
Sports-centric prediction market platform Novig says its trading volume nearly doubled around the launch of its Sydney Sweeney campaign, with first-time depositors more than tripling. The company-reported figures cover a window that also included the start of the NFL season, and a new funding round...
Prediction Markets Beat Traditional Polls in Brazilian Election
5.10.2026
While some national polls favored President Lula over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Polymarket accurately predicted the opposite outcome days before the polls, giving Bolsonaro a lead. This behavior is similar to what happened before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Trump emerged victorious....
CFTC Wants Event Contracts Defined as Swaps, but Not Casino Games
2.10.2026
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent the White House two rules that would redraw the legal definition of a swap. That definition is at the center of prediction markets’ fight with the states. One rule would bring event contracts inside the definition, and the other would carve...
Prediction Markets Hit $68B in a Month as Sportsbook Stocks Sink
2.10.2026
Trading on sports prediction markets nearly doubled in the month football returned, while shares of the two biggest U.S. sportsbook operators fell to multi-year lows. Kalshi still dominates the market, though rivals are growing faster. A $68 Billion Month Combined notional volume in sports...
U.S. CFTC seeks event contract definitions that may defy states' gambling claims
30.9.2026
As it battles with states over prediction markets, the CFTC sent two related rules on swaps definitions for White House review
CFTC Readies Action on Prediction Market Promos, Expected This Week
30.9.2026
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing the bonuses and incentive programs used by prediction markets, with an announcement of some kind reportedly due by the end of the week. The review comes two weeks after the regulator’s deadline for exchanges to bring those programs into...
Problem Gambling Council Director Resigns Months After Kalshi Deal
30.9.2026
The National Council on Problem Gambling is looking for a new executive director after Heather Maurer’s resignation. She is the second senior staff member to depart in a week at the U.S. nonprofit, which has faced criticism since accepting $2 million from Kalshi in May. Two Departures in Seven Days...
Sequoia, Tiger Global Circle Kalshi in Fresh $1B Funding Talks: Report
29.9.2026
Prediction-market operator Kalshi is reportedly negotiating a fresh $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation, an eightfold increase from its $5 billion valuation in October 2025. Reuters reported on Tuesday that Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are discussing leading...
Rep. Comer Targets 3 Platforms in Expanded Prediction Market Probe
29.9.2026
House Oversight Chairman James Comer has expanded Congress’s prediction market insider trading investigation to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com, and Predictit, demanding records by Oct. 13. The inquiry follows allegations that a U.S. Army master sergeant earned more than $409,000 betting with...