Binance Will Lose Dominance After Plea Deal: Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck

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Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, is expected to lose its leading position following the guilty plea to US charges and a record $4.3 billion penalty. 

While the total market value of cryptocurrencies has surged by 12% or $180 billion in the past week, Binance Coin (BNB), the platform’s native token, has missed out on most of the rally, adding only 1.7% to trade at $231 as of Thursday morning in London.

BNB is often seen as a reflection of sentiment towards the exchange since it offers holders benefits such as lower trading fees on Binance. 

The platform has faced a series of regulatory probes throughout this year, culminating in guilty pleas on November 21 for anti-money laundering and sanctions violations in the United States. 

Bloomberg data shows that BNB is the only major token that is still nursing a year-to-date loss.

Although Binance remains the dominant platform for buying, selling, and trading digital assets and crypto derivatives, its dominance is fading. 

According to CCData, Binance’s share of spot trading volumes dropped from 55% at the beginning of 2023 to 32% in November. Its derivatives market share also declined from over 60% to 48%.

“We expect Binance will lose its throne as the No. 1 centralized exchange by volumes following the plea deal with US authorities,” said Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck. 

He added that rivals such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget have the potential to seize the top spot.

New Binance CEO Fails to Address Criticism

Following the settlement with US authorities, Binance’s founder, Changpeng Zhao, pleaded guilty and resigned as CEO.

Richard Teng, a former civil servant turned crypto executive, took over as the new CEO and now faces the challenge of reshaping the company to avoid further regulatory issues while also trying to regain market share.

Teng has emphasized Binance’s strong revenues and profits, but he is under pressure to establish a formal headquarters, appoint a board of directors, and provide greater financial transparency for the company.

Clara Medalie, director of research at Kaiko, explained that Binance’s recent legal troubles are the reason for BNB’s underperformance in the market.

Despite recent setbacks, BNB has still outperformed over longer time periods. 

It has seen a 700% increase over the past three years, compared to a 121% increase in the index of the top 100 tokens.

As reported, Teng has hinted at the exchange’s ability to pay the $4.3 billion it has been fined by the US Justice Department. 

The crypto boss has said in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter) that the exchange is in good shape financially. 

The statement came in reply to a post by Connor Lango, director of business development at Coinbase, who said Binance will most likely be able to “pay full $4.3B DoJ fine with 0 crypto asset sales.”

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