Brief Approval Window Opens for spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants, 90% Chance of Approval by January

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In an exciting development, Bloomberg ETF research analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, unveiled data showing an eight-day long window wherein the Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C) could approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applicants beginning as soon as tomorrow. 

A Brief Window

“If the agency wants to allow all twelve filers to launch – as we believe – this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed,” wrote Seyffart.

Data compiled by Balchunas and Seyffart shows that the brief window for approval will close on November 17th. Even if all are not approved within the next eight days, Balchunas and Seyffart claim there’s still a 90% chance that they will be approved by January 10th, 2024.

Peaking around $35,000 today, Bitcoin continued trading at a higher level following May 2022’s market plunge. The rally could signal the end of a nearly year-and-a-half-long winter in the cryptocurrency space, with the value of Bitcoin expected to increase due to spot ETF enthusiasm. 

If approved, it would be the end of nearly a decade of attempts to bring a spot Bitcoin ETF to market. 

A spot Bitcoin ETF victory

News of the window of approval could mark the final chapter in a longstanding dispute that saw digital currency asset management firm, Grayscale Investments, fight to convert nearly $17 billion of GBTC into a spot ETF. However, in June 2022, the S.E.C. rejected their application, claiming “the proposal did not meet anti-fraud and investor protection standards.”

U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Neomi Rao struck down the S.E.C’s original decision, stating that “the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products.”

“Grayscale’s primary argument is straightforward: the Commission acted arbitrarily and capriciously by denying the listing of Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin ETP and approving the listing of materially similar bitcoin futures ETPs,” claimed the filing. 

Grayscale Investments originally applied for a spot bitcoin ETF unsuccessfully in October 2021. The appellate court’s ruling was finalized last month, putting an end to the deep-seated dispute.

Excitement for ETFS

The potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs ushers in a new era of crypto regulation, wherein investors and everyday market enthusiasts will possess greater access to regulated Bitcoin transactions.

However, Grayscale Investments is not the only firm gunning for a place on the market. Awaiting approval alongside the asset management firm include VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Invesco Gallery Bitcoin ETF, and Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, to name a few. Only time will tell whether or not they will gain approval in the coming days.

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