Coinbase Sees Positive Setup for Bitcoin as Exhaustion Hits Factors Pressuring BTC

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Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase says many technical factors pressuring bitcoin, and crypto more broadly, are starting to be exhausted. “We expect macro factors to become more relevant for the digital asset class in the weeks ahead, which could be supportive for performance,” Coinbase’s analysts detailed.

Coinbase’s Crypto Outlook

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) published its “Weekly: Constructive Outlook” report on Friday, offering its insights on BTC’s future trajectory. Report authors David Duong, Coinbase’s head of institutional research, and David Han, the crypto firm’s institutional research analyst, explained:

Many technical factors pressuring bitcoin specifically (and crypto more broadly) are starting to be exhausted, in our view.

“This is evidenced by the liquidations at FTX (disposing of their Grayscale Bitcoin Trust or GBTC shares, for example) as well as the emergence of some large defunct entities from bankruptcy. Indeed, net inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have averaged more than US$200M daily over the last week (taking the total net inflows to $1.46B since January 11) with a healthy daily volume of ~$1.35B,” the Coinbase analysts described.

“We expect macro factors to become more relevant for the digital asset class in the weeks ahead, which could be supportive for performance,” they shared.

The report also discusses the U.S. economic outlook. It explains that the probability of a soft landing appears to have increased compared to a few months ago, as the U.S. economy seems to be making minimal tradeoffs between activity and inflation. The Coinbase analysts believe that the disinflationary trend will persist, and anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year. This projection contrasts with the 75 basis points suggested in the dot plot and the nearly 150 basis points priced into Fed funds futures. They concluded:

We expect rate cuts in the U.S. to start in May and the tapering of quantitative tightening soon after, coinciding with idiosyncratic events like the bitcoin halving and creating a positive setup for the asset class more broadly.

Do you agree with Coinbase about the crypto market and the U.S. economy? Let us know in the comments section below.