Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Increase as SEC Asks For New Filings

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is requiring exchanges to update their spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings.

According to a recent post shared by Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the SEC is asking the applicants to file new Form 19b-4 on an “accelerated basis” to inform the Commission of a proposed rule change.

Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Odds 75%: Analysts

The post suggested that this move indicated the SEC’s tendency to approve the Ethereum ETF applications by the Thursday deadline, marking potential issuance of the second spot digital asset ETF in the United States.

Balchunas and another Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated that the odds of Ethereum ETF approval increased significantly from the previous 25% to the current 75%. The prediction was made before the updated Form 19b-4 request.

Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

The ETF Store president Nate Geraci said in a social media post that the SEC must approve both the 19b-4s and S-1s for exchange rule changes and registration statements so the ETFs can launch.

Though a part of the crypto community has been expecting an approval, Balchunas believed that it was merely “wishcasting.”

US Crypto Policy Could Do a 180

“If the spot ETH ETF is approved, it will be a true shock to everyone I know in DC who’s close to this process,” said Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky. “That doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”

“It means approval could signal a major shift in US crypto policy after the SAB 121 vote, perhaps more important than the ETF itself,” said Chervinsky.

This is the correct take. I was literally in DC last week for @PerianneDC's Blockchain Summit and almost every single person i spoke to said that it was going to be denied. Only one person thought it would be approved out of like 30+.

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

Seyffart seconded Chervinsky’s statement, saying, “This is the correct take. I was literally in DC last week for @PerianneDC’s Blockchain Summit and almost every single person I spoke to said that it was going to be denied.”

The Biden administration could look more crypto-friendly once the ETFs are approved. Former CFTC commissioner Chris Giancarlo recently said that Donald Trump is the “First Crypto President,” who is running for re-election.

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