Polymarket Bets Favor Trump for GOP Nomination With an 81% Chance of Winning
Publikováno: 13.11.2023
This week, the blockchain-based forecasting platform Polymarket’s figures indicate that Donald Trump is leading the race for the Republican nomination in July 2024. Trump is ahead of a group of 13 contenders, which includes a few not actively campaigning, in a betting pool worth $5.25 million. Decentralized Crypto Betting Shows Trump Leads GOP Race, DeSantis […]
This week, the blockchain-based forecasting platform Polymarket’s figures indicate that Donald Trump is leading the race for the Republican nomination in July 2024. Trump is ahead of a group of 13 contenders, which includes a few not actively campaigning, in a betting pool worth $5.25 million.
Decentralized Crypto Betting Shows Trump Leads GOP Race, DeSantis and Ramaswamy Trail Behind
While the opponent for current U.S. President Joe Biden remains undetermined, online betting sites are signaling a strong likelihood of Donald Trump clinching the Republican nomination. Predictit.org estimates Trump’s chances at 73% for securing the nomination and 28% for not. Meanwhile, Covers.com assigns Trump an 83.3% implied probability of victory in the nomination race.
On the cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket, Trump is also in the lead for the Republican candidacy. The platform’s pricing, which reflects the perceived probability of various event outcomes, shows Trump with an 81% chance of winning the nomination. Trump faces competition from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is given a 19% likelihood of securing the nomination, and Vivek Ramaswamy, who stands at a 7.5% chance of victory.
The betting dynamics among the top three Republican prospects were quite different in August. Recorded on August 24, 2023, the same wager, then valued at $4.86 million, positioned Trump in the forefront with a 71% probability of taking the nomination. At that time, Ramaswamy enjoyed a runner-up status with a 17% chance, while DeSantis trailed with a 13% probability.
The perspectives of Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis on bitcoin reflect a spectrum of views that may shape the crypto policies of their potential presidencies. Trump has cast doubt on bitcoin, labeling it a challenge to the U.S. dollar and decrying it as a “scam.” Ramaswamy, meanwhile, champions bitcoin, even welcoming it for campaign contributions.
DeSantis joins Ramaswamy in endorsing bitcoin, critiquing what he considers governmental resistance to bitcoin and other crypto assets. Despite leading in various betting forums and on the crypto-based Polymarket, Trump’s stance is markedly less supportive compared to the other candidates, advocating for the primacy of the U.S. dollar and stringent crypto regulations.
What do you think about the betting markets for the Republican nomination? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.