Santiment Suggests Prices May Defy Mass Traders’ Expectations Ahead of Halving

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Blockchain analytics platform Santiment has suggested that the current bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin may soon be overturned.

In a recent post, Santiment highlighted the historical tendency of prices to move in the opposite direction of mass traders’ expectations. 

According to the platform, the market could potentially bottom out right before or shortly after the highly anticipated halving event, expected to occur within the next two days.

Santiment’s analysis is based on data gathered from various social media platforms such as Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan. 

By tracking keywords and topics that generate interest within the crypto community, Santiment’s Social Trends indicator provides valuable insights into market sentiment.

Santiment Finds a Decline in “Bull Market” Mentions

The platform’s data reveals a decline in mentions of “bull market” or “bull cycle” since late March, while references to “bear market” or “bear cycle” have steadily increased. 

Santiment notes that the crypto crowd perceives the end of the bull market following Bitcoin’s 16% drop from its all-time high of $73,600 on March 14.

According to the #crypto crowd, the #bullmarket has essentially come to an end after #Bitcoin's -16% market value drop since the #AllTimeHigh of $73.6K hit back on March 14th. At the same time, #bearmarket mentions are increasing. Historically, prices move the opposite… pic.twitter.com/1fnGePwMV0

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 17, 2024

Furthermore, the diminishing mentions of “buy the dip” indicate waning optimism among retail investors. 

In the crypto world, “buy the dip” refers to the strategy of purchasing assets during a downtrend with the expectation of a quick recovery and continued upward momentum. 

Historically, a decline in “buy the dip” mentions has often signified the end of bearish trends.

Bitcoin has faced several challenges this month, contributing to a 14% price decline. 

Factors such as reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the timing of U.S. tax payments have weighed on the leading cryptocurrency. 

Yesterday, Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 before recovering to trade near $61,200 at the time of writing. 

Long-Term Outlook Remains Optimistic

Bitcoin’s blockchain prepares for its fourth mining reward halving, scheduled for Friday or early Saturday, where the emission of BTC per block will be reduced by 50% to 3.125 BTC. 

While some analysts, including JPMorgan, have cautioned about a potential further price slide following this quadrennial event, the overall consensus remains bullish in the long term.

Just recently, Bitwise said that while the month immediately following the halving typically sees a modest drop in price, the subsequent year often witnesses exponential gains. 

The asset manager noted that following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin experienced a meager 9% increase in the month post-halving, only to skyrocket by a staggering 8,839% over the following year. 

Similar patterns were observed after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, with Bitcoin’s price surging significantly in the year following each event.

Likewise, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek has recently said that Bitcoin may experience some selling pressure in the lead-up to the highly anticipated halving event, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. 

While acknowledging the possibility of selling pressure in the near term due to the “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” trading phenomenon, he emphasized that the halving will have a significant positive impact on the market in the long run. 

“Over a longer period, the halving will make a substantial difference and is a positive development for the market.”

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