Schiff Family Divide: Economic Doomsday vs. AI-Powered Prosperity

Celý článek

While the gold bug and economist Peter Schiff insists the U.S. economy will experience a financial crisis of epic proportions, his son Spencer continues to espouse a diametrically opposed view of the future. Spencer Schiff is an ardent supporter of artificial intelligence (AI), and in recent times, he has been forecasting that the latter half of the 2020s will witness an “enormous hyper-deflationary economic boom.”

Schiff Saga: Father and Son Differ on U.S. Economic Fate

Following our report on Spencer Schiff‘s change in perspective on bitcoin (BTC), the younger Schiff has persisted in sharing his future predictions. Spencer’s forecast sharply contrasts with that of his father, Peter Schiff, the renowned advocate for gold and economist. Recently, his father cautioned of a “massive crisis” and predicted a rush of people exiting the U.S. dollar.

Peter Schiff elaborated on the looming prospect of a significant flight from the U.S. dollar, driven by the persistent specter of colossal deficits. These deficits, surpassing the staggering mark of $2 trillion annually, extend into an indefinite future. Spencer’s perspective diverges significantly, as he insists that “very few people understand the economic implications of what’s happening right now.”

“Throughout history, the intelligence growth rate was just a function of the human population growth rate,” Spencer explained in a missive posted to the social media platform X. “Now we’re removing the biological constraint to the intelligence growth rate, so instead it’s only constrained by the growth rate of effective compute, which is orders of magnitude more rapid than the growth rate of the human population.”

The younger Schiff added:

That’s why I believe the second half of the 2020s will be characterized by an unfathomably enormous hyper-deflationary economic boom that will never end (unless humanity gets wiped out by misaligned ASI). The average person’s standard of living will likely improve by more over the next 10 years than it did over the past few hundred years — maybe even the past few thousand years.

Spencer concludes that he envisions a near future where the economy’s growth accelerates exponentially. He predicts an unimaginable scenario of it doubling, not just yearly, but potentially every month or at an even more frenetic pace. “It’s hard to comprehend how wealthy our society is about to become,” Spencer said.

He emphasized the certainty of this vision, considering it his fundamental outlook. Of course, variables like an unexpectedly rapid and stringent regulatory response or unforeseen challenges from advanced superintelligence could alter his timeline. Yet, at this moment, Spencer declared his prediction about the forthcoming era is nothing short of extraordinarily “optimistic.”

Peter Responds to His Son’s Predictions

Following Spencer’s declaration, his father Peter responded to the X thread. “You make some good points, but there’s a lot of short-term problems that will likely manifest first,” the older Schiff told his son. “Also misguided government and central bank policy will delay the type of benefits you are expecting. But over a longer time horizon, AI looks extremely promising and there’s a lot to look forward to on the other side of the coming crisis. You’re still very young, so you have a lot to look forward to.”

Regardless of perspective, both Schiffs hold two sharply contrasting views of the future economy. One is filled with pessimism and ‘doom and gloom,’ while the other is brimming with exuberant optimism, underscoring a bright economic future driven by AI technology. Then there’s the possibility of a balance between both scenarios, where significant economic calamity precedes a Renaissance of growth.

What do you think about Spencer Schiff’s predictions about the future of the economy in the latter half of the 2020s? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.