Search
CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting
28.9.2024
In just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction...
Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks Wobble
17.9.2024
Bitcoin saw its value leap to $61,331 on Tuesday, just a day before members of the U.S. Federal Reserve convene to discuss a potential rate cut for federal funds. While BTC posted a 5% gain, stock markets exhibited mixed signals, hovering near previous highs, and gold dipped more than half...
CME Futures and Polymarket Predict Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut – Will the Fed Deliver?
16.9.2024
As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of a larger 50bps reduction. Predictions from betting...
Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC
15.9.2024
The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger...
Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability
12.9.2024
With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch...
Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction
2.9.2024
On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently...
Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact
25.8.2024
The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely. However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop...
Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut
18.8.2024
Right now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors...
Citi Analysts Predict 8 Weeks of Fed Rate Cuts Starting in September, Powell Seeks Evidence
9.7.2024
Analysts from Citi, the American multinational investment bank and financial services corporation, predict the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing rates by September, totaling a 200 basis points (bps) cut over the next eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Nevertheless, Federal...
US Inflation Cools to 4% Annual Rate, Setting Stage for Fed’s Decision on Interest Rates
13.6.2023
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) report, released on Tuesday, reveals that inflation in the United States has eased to a yearly rate of 4%. The latest development arrives just ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June...
Economist Larry Summers Urges Fed to Consider Half-Point Rate Increase in July
3.6.2023
Larry Summers, the American economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that should the U.S. Federal Reserve refrain from increasing the benchmark interest rate this month, a half-point rate hike may be necessary for July. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, there is a 74% likelihood that...
Market Outlook: CME Fedwatch Tool Points to Increased Chance of June Rate Hike
26.5.2023
According to the CME Group Fedwatch tool on Thursday, there was a 51% probability of a quarter-point rate increase during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 14. Just a fortnight ago, the Fedwatch tool indicated a slim possibility of the federal funds rate reaching...
US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last Year
12.4.2023
On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which noted that inflation rose 0.1% last month in March and 5% from a year ago. Annual inflation has dropped for nine consecutive months following the nine times the U.S. Federal Reserve raised...