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CME Futures and Polymarket Predict Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut – Will the Fed Deliver?
16.9.2024
As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of a larger 50bps reduction. Predictions from betting...
Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC
15.9.2024
The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger...
Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability
12.9.2024
With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch...
Citi Analysts Predict 8 Weeks of Fed Rate Cuts Starting in September, Powell Seeks Evidence
9.7.2024
Analysts from Citi, the American multinational investment bank and financial services corporation, predict the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing rates by September, totaling a 200 basis points (bps) cut over the next eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Nevertheless, Federal...
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns; Outlook Remains ‘Uncertain’
1.5.2024
On Wednesday, May 1, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve chose to maintain the benchmark interest rates at their highest in 23 years. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members noted that although inflation has subsided, it still “remains elevated.” No Change in Federal Funds Rate;...
Markets Tumble as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish
3.4.2024
Attention is riveted on the Federal Reserve’s assembly set for May 1, with widespread anticipation that the U.S. central banking authority might lower the federal funds rate at this juncture of the year. Currently, market forecasts suggest a rate reduction is very unlikely, and Cleveland...
Powell: Economy Progresses but Inflation Still ‘Too High’ to Adjust Benchmark Rate
20.3.2024
On Wednesday, March 20, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declared that there will be no change to the federal funds rate for the time being. The committee emphasized its intention not to lower the target rate until there is “greater confidence that inflation is moving...
US Banking Sector Volatility — Distressed Commercial Real Estate Sector Raises Default Concerns
1.2.2024
Following the U.S. central bank’s decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, the turbulence in the commercial real estate market has sent shockwaves through the country’s banking sector and internationally as well. On Thursday, New York Community Bancorp witnessed a further...
Fed Maintains Interest Rates, Seeks ‘Greater Confidence’ on Inflation Goal; Bitcoin and Gold Hold Steady
31.1.2024
On Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve opted to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) additionally stated that the committee “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence...
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction as Fed Interest Rate Decision is Announced – New Bull Market Starting?
31.1.2024
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady at 5.50%, the financial world turns its gaze to the potential impacts on major cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum. This stabilization of the federal funds rate...
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economist Predicts Rate Cuts ‘This Year’ as Market Eyes Federal Reserve’s Next Move
8.1.2024
This year, mirroring last year’s speculation, market observers are keenly awaiting decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve concerning the federal funds rate, with a particular focus on potential rate cuts this year. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s lead economist in the U.S., predicts...
US Inflation Rises Beyond Projections: Markets Jittery, Rate Hike in Question
12.10.2023
In September, U.S. inflation surpassed expectations, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing a 3.7% year-on-year surge in the consumer price index (CPI), as per the latest data. While core inflation slightly decreased from 4.3% to 4.1%, market pundits anticipate that the U.S. Federal...
‘Soft Landing Is a Primary Objective’ — Federal Reserve Signals One More Rate Hike in 2023
22.9.2023
Based on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s forecasts, it appears that the central bank is poised to enact an additional hike to the federal funds rate by the end of 2023. The news comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged during its recent...
Federal Reserve Raises Federal Funds Rate by 25bps Amidst Moderate Economic Growth
26.7.2023
In the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) report, it was stated that the U.S. economy has been experiencing moderate growth and members of the committee have decided to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) in order to keep a handle on inflation. Fed Raises Benchmark Bank...
End of Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bernanke, Majority of Polled Economists See Terminal Rate Hike Ahead
23.7.2023
With just a four-day window to go, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears primed to raise the federal funds rate by 25-basis-points (bps) at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The market presently maintains the conviction that this quarter-point uptick...
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Calls 2023’s Banking Fiasco a ‘Mini Crisis’, Foresees Consumer Savings Depleted by Year’s End
15.7.2023
Four days ago, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was interviewed by The Economist and he discussed the recent U.S. banking disaster that occurred last March. At that time, the public witnessed the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history. Dimon asserted that “for the most part,”...
2 Rate Hikes or Hold? Fed Predictions Vary From No Rate Hikes to 6% in 2023
3.7.2023
Based on projections from the U.S. Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the central bank will implement two additional increases to the federal funds rate within the span of 2023. As indicated by Fed policymakers, they estimate the benchmark bank rate to fall within the range of 5.5% to 5.75%...
San Francisco Fed President Deems 2 Rate Hikes in 2023 ‘Reasonable,’ Urges Caution in Monetary Policy
26.6.2023
Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, expressed her views this week, stating that she believes two additional rate hikes this year would be appropriate. However, she maintains a neutral stance regarding the forthcoming July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting...
Anticipation Builds as US Central Bank Eyes Two More Rate Hikes, Targeting 5.6% by Year-End
20.6.2023
After the U.S. central bank refrained from boosting interest rates last week, investors now anticipate two more hikes that may elevate the federal funds rate to 5.6% by the year’s end, climbing 50 basis points (bps) from its present level. CME’s Fedwatch tool indicated on Tuesday that...
US Inflation Cools to 4% Annual Rate, Setting Stage for Fed’s Decision on Interest Rates
13.6.2023
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) report, released on Tuesday, reveals that inflation in the United States has eased to a yearly rate of 4%. The latest development arrives just ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June...