Search
Election Day Drama Won’t Be the Only Major Event in November – Here’s Why
23.10.2024
With only 15 days left until the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it’s scheduled to follow just two days after the U.S. election on Nov. 7. As of now, market forecasts via CME Group’s Fedwatch tool are leaning toward a 25 basis point (bps) reduction in the target...
CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting
28.9.2024
In just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction...
Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks Wobble
17.9.2024
Bitcoin saw its value leap to $61,331 on Tuesday, just a day before members of the U.S. Federal Reserve convene to discuss a potential rate cut for federal funds. While BTC posted a 5% gain, stock markets exhibited mixed signals, hovering near previous highs, and gold dipped more than half...
CME Futures and Polymarket Predict Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut – Will the Fed Deliver?
16.9.2024
As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of a larger 50bps reduction. Predictions from betting...
Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC
15.9.2024
The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger...
Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability
12.9.2024
With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch...
Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction
2.9.2024
On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently...
Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact
25.8.2024
The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely. However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop...
Probability of Fed Cutting Rates by 50 bp in Sept is 32.5%: FedWatch Tool
22.8.2024
The probability of Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis point in Sept is 32.5% after the probability…
Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut
18.8.2024
Right now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors...
Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Point to Highly Probable Rate Cuts by the Fed
6.8.2024
Following the recent volatility in global equity markets, some analysts suggest that the U.S. Federal Reserve might implement an emergency rate cut before September. In addition, market predictions are leaning toward a rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The...
Citi Analysts Predict 8 Weeks of Fed Rate Cuts Starting in September, Powell Seeks Evidence
9.7.2024
Analysts from Citi, the American multinational investment bank and financial services corporation, predict the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing rates by September, totaling a 200 basis points (bps) cut over the next eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Nevertheless, Federal...
Are Bitcoin traders losing hope? Top traders' metric hits two-week low
7.6.2024
Bitcoin derivatives markets show less appetite for bullish positions. Is BTC price at risk?
Fed’s Powell Hints at Continued Elevated Rates; Fedwatch Tool Indicates Near-Certain Hike Next Month
19.10.2023
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed on Thursday the U.S. central bank remains committed to bringing down inflation and will maintain restrictive monetary policy until prices cool. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Powell hinted that further interest rate hikes may be appropriate...
Consensus Pause: Majority of Economists Predict No Rate Hikes for 2023, With Cuts Delayed Until March 2024
20.8.2023
A newly published Reuters poll reveals that most economists concur: the U.S. Federal Reserve has likely capped its rate hikes. Yet, rate cuts aren’t anticipated until March 2024. This survey drops just as markets approach the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for next week. All eyes...
End of Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bernanke, Majority of Polled Economists See Terminal Rate Hike Ahead
23.7.2023
With just a four-day window to go, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears primed to raise the federal funds rate by 25-basis-points (bps) at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The market presently maintains the conviction that this quarter-point uptick...
2 Rate Hikes or Hold? Fed Predictions Vary From No Rate Hikes to 6% in 2023
3.7.2023
Based on projections from the U.S. Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the central bank will implement two additional increases to the federal funds rate within the span of 2023. As indicated by Fed policymakers, they estimate the benchmark bank rate to fall within the range of 5.5% to 5.75%...
Anticipation Builds as US Central Bank Eyes Two More Rate Hikes, Targeting 5.6% by Year-End
20.6.2023
After the U.S. central bank refrained from boosting interest rates last week, investors now anticipate two more hikes that may elevate the federal funds rate to 5.6% by the year’s end, climbing 50 basis points (bps) from its present level. CME’s Fedwatch tool indicated on Tuesday that...
US Inflation Cools to 4% Annual Rate, Setting Stage for Fed’s Decision on Interest Rates
13.6.2023
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) report, released on Tuesday, reveals that inflation in the United States has eased to a yearly rate of 4%. The latest development arrives just ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June...
Economist Larry Summers Urges Fed to Consider Half-Point Rate Increase in July
3.6.2023
Larry Summers, the American economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that should the U.S. Federal Reserve refrain from increasing the benchmark interest rate this month, a half-point rate hike may be necessary for July. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, there is a 74% likelihood that...