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Consensus Pause: Majority of Economists Predict No Rate Hikes for 2023, With Cuts Delayed Until March 2024
20.8.2023
A newly published Reuters poll reveals that most economists concur: the U.S. Federal Reserve has likely capped its rate hikes. Yet, rate cuts aren’t anticipated until March 2024. This survey drops just as markets approach the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for next week. All eyes...
End of Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bernanke, Majority of Polled Economists See Terminal Rate Hike Ahead
23.7.2023
With just a four-day window to go, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears primed to raise the federal funds rate by 25-basis-points (bps) at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The market presently maintains the conviction that this quarter-point uptick...
2 Rate Hikes or Hold? Fed Predictions Vary From No Rate Hikes to 6% in 2023
3.7.2023
Based on projections from the U.S. Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the central bank will implement two additional increases to the federal funds rate within the span of 2023. As indicated by Fed policymakers, they estimate the benchmark bank rate to fall within the range of 5.5% to 5.75%...
US Inflation Cools to 4% Annual Rate, Setting Stage for Fed’s Decision on Interest Rates
13.6.2023
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) report, released on Tuesday, reveals that inflation in the United States has eased to a yearly rate of 4%. The latest development arrives just ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June...
Economist Larry Summers Urges Fed to Consider Half-Point Rate Increase in July
3.6.2023
Larry Summers, the American economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that should the U.S. Federal Reserve refrain from increasing the benchmark interest rate this month, a half-point rate hike may be necessary for July. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, there is a 74% likelihood that...
Market Outlook: CME Fedwatch Tool Points to Increased Chance of June Rate Hike
26.5.2023
According to the CME Group Fedwatch tool on Thursday, there was a 51% probability of a quarter-point rate increase during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 14. Just a fortnight ago, the Fedwatch tool indicated a slim possibility of the federal funds rate reaching...
Biden Appoints New Fed Vice Chair as Fedwatch Tool Shows Slim Chance of Rate Hike at June Meeting
14.5.2023
Investors believe it is highly likely that the target rate will remain unchanged at the June 14 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on May 3. As the battle against inflation in...
US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last Year
12.4.2023
On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which noted that inflation rose 0.1% last month in March and 5% from a year ago. Annual inflation has dropped for nine consecutive months following the nine times the U.S. Federal Reserve raised...
Economists Expect the Fed to Reveal Another 25bps Rate Hike Before Pausing for the Rest of 2023
10.4.2023
After the March rate hike by the Federal Reserve, economists believe that the recent move by Saudi Arabia and several members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production could complicate the central bank’s mission. Additionally, the majority of...