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Polymarket’s $32M Nobel Market Didn’t Anticipate the Peace Prize Winner
9.10.2026
Traders put more than $32 million into Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market and sent Yulia Navalnaya to favorite overnight—but the winner, Navi Pillay, was not among the market’s named candidates. Kalshi’s market did not list her either.   Nobody Priced the Eventual Winner The Norwegian...
NFL Joins 39 States, Global Regulators in Pushing Supreme Court on Kalshi Case
8.10.2026
An international gaming regulators’ group, the NFL, and a coalition of 39 states have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear New Jersey’s case against Kalshi, arguing that split appeals courts have left sports betting rules depending on where a bettor lives.   A Wave of Briefs Fly...
NFL joins pushback against prediction markets as U.S. Supreme Court asked to act
8.10.2026
In opposition to federal oversight of the prediction markets, the National Football League has sided with states, Gary Gensler and one of the authors of the relevant law
Ethereum Price Cracks as 3 Prediction Markets Make Their Calls
8.10.2026
Ethereum’s latest selloff has prediction markets pulling in three different directions. Ether fell through $2,600 on Wednesday as U.S. spot ether ETFs logged a sixth straight day of outflows, yet Myriad traders still give ETH a 73.7% shot at hitting $3,000 before $1,500. Polymarket is far less...
Kalshi’s 15-Minute Gold Bets Top Ether as Fast Markets Drive Fees
8.10.2026
Kalshi’s public data shows its 15-minute gold markets traded more contracts than their ether counterparts in September, their second month of operation. The short-duration markets now bring in most of the exchange’s non-sports fees.   Gold Passes Ether in Its Second Month...
US Lawmaker Pushes Ban on Candidates Betting on Their Own Elections
7.10.2026
U.S. Rep. Don Davis has introduced the No Betting on Your Own Race Act, which would prohibit federal candidates from trading prediction market contracts tied to their own elections. Davis Seeks Ban on Candidates Betting on Their Own Elections U.S. Representative Don Davis, D-N.C., has introduced...
Kalshi Ends Federal Court Losing Streak With Partial Win Over Illinois
7.10.2026
A federal judge in Chicago blocked Illinois from enforcing its sports wagering license rules and a related criminal provision against Kalshi and Coinbase, but held off on the state’s new prediction market fees. It’s Kalshi’s first win in federal court since July. Judge Says a Swap...
Polymarket Is Rebuilding the Engine Under Every Bet Before November 2
6.10.2026
Polymarket has started live-testing Protocol V2, a ground-up rewrite of the smart contracts behind its prediction markets, with new markets set to switch over on Nov. 2. What Has Been Running Under the Hood Since 2019 Polymarket’s developer account introduced Protocol V2 on Monday as “a...
Bitcoin Price at $85K as Bettors Eye $100K, ChatGPT Calls $94K
3.10.2026
Bitcoin’s price spent Saturday trapped close to $85,000 after Friday’s charge above $87,000 collapsed, but the forecasts surrounding it were anything but quiet. Polymarket traders give bitcoin a 39% chance of touching $100,000 before 2027, Kalshi’s year-end forecast stands at $86,240, Claude...
U.S. CFTC seeks event contract definitions that may defy states' gambling claims
30.9.2026
As it battles with states over prediction markets, the CFTC sent two related rules on swaps definitions for White House review
CFTC Readies Action on Prediction Market Promos, Expected This Week
30.9.2026
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing the bonuses and incentive programs used by prediction markets, with an announcement of some kind reportedly due by the end of the week. The review comes two weeks after the regulator’s deadline for exchanges to bring those programs into...
Problem Gambling Council Director Resigns Months After Kalshi Deal
30.9.2026
The National Council on Problem Gambling is looking for a new executive director after Heather Maurer’s resignation. She is the second senior staff member to depart in a week at the U.S. nonprofit, which has faced criticism since accepting $2 million from Kalshi in May. Two Departures in Seven Days...
Sequoia, Tiger Global Circle Kalshi in Fresh $1B Funding Talks: Report
29.9.2026
Prediction-market operator Kalshi is reportedly negotiating a fresh $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation, an eightfold increase from its $5 billion valuation in October 2025. Reuters reported on Tuesday that Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are discussing leading...
Rep. Comer Targets 3 Platforms in Expanded Prediction Market Probe
29.9.2026
House Oversight Chairman James Comer has expanded Congress’s prediction market insider trading investigation to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com, and Predictit, demanding records by Oct. 13. The inquiry follows allegations that a U.S. Army master sergeant earned more than $409,000 betting with...
Bitcoin Price to Hit $100K in 2026? Kalshi Gives It a 34% Chance
29.9.2026
Kalshi traders pushed the odds of bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026 from 17% to 43% in under a week, and now, with bitcoin’s price slipping yesterday, that bet is hovering around 34%. The Round Trip, Date by Date The contract in question is Kalshi’s “How high will Bitcoin get...
Sixth Circuit Turns Kalshi’s Own Words Against It in Two-State Loss
29.9.2026
A federal appeals court ruled Sept. 25 that Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. The court built part of its reasoning on things Kalshi had said in court. The company’s multi-state litigation footprint already produced a circuit split, and...
Ethereum, Solana and Zcash Face Wild Year-End Price Predictions
26.9.2026
Three cryptocurrencies, three very different bets and millions of dollars riding on what happens before New Year’s Day. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing a 69% chance that ethereum touches $3,000, a 60% chance that solana reaches $140 and a 41% chance that zcash hits...
Kalshi Says XRP Price Can Hit $1.70 in September
26.9.2026
Kalshi’s September XRP market is flashing a $1.70 forecast, yet the $1.70 contract trades at just 32 cents with XRP near $1.55 and five days left. 1.7 on the Screen, 32 on the Ticket The number came from Kalshi’s September XRP market, which shows a 1.7 forecast, up 0.1 on the day. That...
Another appeals court rules against prediction market provider Kalshi, says sports contracts are subject to state regulations
25.9.2026
A Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled that prediction markets' sports-related events contracts are not swaps, and therefore aren't subject to federal regulatory oversight
$5 Billion of Nearly Identical Kalshi Trades Draw CFTC Scrutiny
24.9.2026
Almost one million trades of nearly the same size have moved through a single Kalshi market since August, and federal regulators are looking at them, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Based on the exchange’s public data, the pattern is still running on Wednesday morning—and regulators...