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Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Show $100K Odds at 12% for 2026, Data Reveals
9.4.2026
Prediction market traders are placing tens of millions of dollars on bitcoin price outcomes in 2026, and the data shows a market divided between near-term caution and long-range optimism. Key Takeaways: Polymarket’s April 2026 bitcoin price market has logged $11.8 million in volume, with $75,000...
Prediction Markets Put the US-Iran Ceasefire on a Short Clock
9.4.2026
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a fragile truce, with over $16.5 million wagered on when or whether Washington will officially close the books on its military campaign against Tehran. Key Takeaways: Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran military operations market hit $16.4M in volume, with April...
Onchain Data Flags Suspicious Bets on Polymarket and Hyperliquid Ahead of Trump’s Iran Deal
8.4.2026
Trump struck a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, and within hours, blockchain analysts were asking who knew first. Key Takeaways: Trump’s April 7 ceasefire with Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices below $100 and triggering a bitcoin rally. Polymarket wallets with...
Why Long-Term Profitability Remains Elusive for 99% of Polymarket Users
8.4.2026
Despite the hype surrounding massive payouts, a report by Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that 84.1% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. The report shows that high earnings are extremely rare: only 2% have made over $1,000, and a tiny 0.033% have cleared $100,000. Key Takeaways: A new study found...
Prediction Market Boom Continues With Polymarket and Kalshi Leading $25.7B Month
6.4.2026
By the numbers, prediction markets recorded their second-highest notional volume over a two-year period. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows that roughly seven platforms tallied $25.7 billion in notional volume in March, with most of that activity concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi....
Polymarket’s April 2026 Upgrade: New Stablecoin, Faster Order Matching, Smart Contract Wallet Support
6.4.2026
Polymarket announced on Monday that it is replacing bridged USDC.e with a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token called Polymarket USD, paired with a rebuilt order book and upgraded smart contracts under CTF Exchange V2. Key Takeaways: Polymarket launched Polymarket USD on April 6, 2026, replacing...
Polymarket Partners With Spanish Football League La Liga
6.4.2026
Polymarket will become La Liga’s official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, giving it exclusive rights to use the league’s and each club’s intellectual property when displaying soccer matches. La Liga becomes the first European football league to partner with Polymarket....
Lawmaker Demands Polymarket Remove 219 War Bets After Airman Market Controversy
5.4.2026
Polymarket removed a live prediction market tied to the rescue status of a missing U.S. airman on April 3, 2026, after Rep. Seth Moulton publicly condemned it as exploitative of an active military search-and-rescue operation. Key Takeaways: Polymarket pulled a bet on a missing U.S. airman’s rescue...
Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates as Markets Fully Price out 2026 Cuts
5.4.2026
Markets have priced out every Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 as a U.S.-Israel war with Iran sends oil past $110 per barrel and consumer gas prices toward $4 a gallon. Key Takeaways: Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting....
Kalshi and Polymarket Iran Predictions: $200M+ Bet on Conflict Outcomes in 2026
4.4.2026
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2026 Iran War, with U.S. entry into Iran now carrying 90% odds and over $115 million in trading volume. Key Takeaways: Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces...
Polymarket Brings TradFi Markets to Prediction Trading With Pyth Integration
2.4.2026
Polymarket has integrated Pyth Network as the resolution source for a new category of traditional asset markets on its prediction platform, giving traders a data-backed way to speculate on U.S. equities, commodities, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Pyth Terminal Goes Live as Polymarket Adds Daily...
Prediction Market Showdown: CFTC and DOJ Challenge Illinois State Gambling Authority in Federal Court
2.4.2026
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on April 2, 2026, seeking to permanently block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms. U.S. Government Sues...
Trump Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% on Polymarket Amid Falling Approval and Iran War Concerns
30.3.2026
According to polls conducted in the mid-to-late stretch of March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have edged lower, weighed by the Iran conflict and ongoing economic concerns. At the same time, prediction markets tied to the prospect of Trump facing impeachment before his term...
US Troops in Region Top 50,000 as Polymarket Gives 71% Odds Forces Enter Iran by April 30
30.3.2026
The Pentagon is moving tens of thousands of troops into the Middle East and drawing up contingency plans for limited ground raids inside Iran, but no U.S. forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time. What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What...
California Governor Bars Policymakers From Insider Betting on Prediction Markets
27.3.2026
California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Friday barring gubernatorial appointees from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. California Bans Gubernatorial Appointees From Betting on Prediction Markets With Non-Public Information...
Polymarket Secures $600M From Intercontinental Exchange in Final Funding Tranche
27.3.2026
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, fulfilling the final obligations of a structured investment program the NYSE operator announced in October 2025. ICE and Polymarket The owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), ICE, disclosed...
Iran Ceasefire Odds Climb on Polymarket as Trump Signals Negotiations With Tehran
25.3.2026
According to a report from the New York Times (NYT), a 15-point framework aimed at resolving the conflict in the Middle East was presented to Iran, and markets have since settled following the earlier bout of volatility. At the same time, participants in prediction markets are placing bets on...
Gate Integrates Polymarket in First for Centralized Exchanges
24.3.2026
Gate has integrated Polymarket into its app, becoming the first centralized exchange to offer direct access to the prediction market platform. The rollout gives users a new way to trade on global events across crypto, finance, and sports. Prediction Markets Now Open to Mainstream Traders Via Gate...
Markets Flip Script as Fed Hike Odds Overtake Cuts for First Time in 2026 Cycle
24.3.2026
Markets have sharply repriced Federal Reserve expectations, with near-term rate hike probabilities now edging out cuts for the first time since the easing cycle began. Rate Expectations Shift Sharply as Fed Holds and Markets Reassess The shift, captured by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Market...
Polymarket Implements Updated Rules Targeting Insider Trading Activities
23.3.2026
Polymarket is launching updated rules that prohibit users from participating in their event contracts if they are trading on stolen information, on illegal tips, or if they can influence the outcome of the event, strengthening its compliance across both its DeFi platform and CFTC-regulated...