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Nalezeno "prediction markets": 258

Biden's Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

6.7.2024
The president's chances of reelection remain 12% and his probability of dropping out stayed at 63%, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform

Biden's Odds of Dropping Out Surge to Almost 80% on Polymarket After New York Times Report

3.7.2024

Kamala Harris' Odds of Winning Democratic Nomination Surge on Polymarket

3.7.2024
The vice president

Biden's Blunder Ignites Trading Frenzy on Polymarket

1.7.2024
Odds that the president will drop out of the race surged as high as 50% after the debate before leveling off at 40% on the crypto-based prediction market

39% Chance of Dropping Out — Joe Biden’s Debate Stumbles Fuel Prediction Market Betting

28.6.2024
Following the initial 2024 U.S. Presidential Debate, prediction market wagers on whether incumbent Joe Biden will withdraw have seen a significant increase in activity. The likelihood of Biden stepping down and being substituted has risen notably. Betting Markets React to Joe Biden’s...

Polymarket Contradicts Its Oracle Service in Rarity for Prediction Market

27.6.2024
Nearly all UMA voters said that the son of Donald Trump was not involved in the creation of the DJT token

Vivek Ramaswamy’s VP Prospects Spike 1,100% on Prediction Market Polymarket

26.6.2024
Following speculation that former President Donald Trump might select Republican Vivek Ramaswamy as his vice presidential candidate, Ramaswamy’s chances have significantly increased on prediction platforms like Polymarket. Over the last three days, his odds have jumped by 1,100%. Ramaswamy...

Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

24.6.2024
Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement

Trump and Biden Likely Won't Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

18.6.2024
Meanwhile, there's a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article about prediction markets

Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.

11.6.2024
With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market's traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate

Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

4.6.2024
Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts

Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote

28.5.2024
Plus, how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?

Will RFK Jr. Debate Trump or Biden? Probably Not, Prediction Market Says

20.5.2024
Plus: Which cat-themed meme coin will hit $1 billion first?

Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket

14.5.2024
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding close to $75 million

Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls

13.5.2024
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election

U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts

10.5.2024
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts

Polymarket Bets Reflect Low Confidence in Ethereum ETF Approval by SEC

7.5.2024
According to a wager on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission currently stands at just 7%. This forecast commenced in January with a 76% probability of approval...