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CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting


In just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction...

Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks Wobble


Bitcoin saw its value leap to $61,331 on Tuesday, just a day before members of the U.S. Federal Reserve convene to discuss a potential rate cut for federal funds. While BTC posted a 5% gain, stock markets exhibited mixed signals, hovering near previous highs, and gold dipped more than half...

Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC


The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger...

Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability


With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch...

Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction


On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently...

Nasdaq Seeks SEC Approval to Launch Bitcoin Index Options


Nasdaq has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list and trade Bitcoin Index Options. The company aims to provide new tools for institutional and retail investors to manage cryptocurrency investments. The options, pending regulatory approval, will offer European-style...

Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut


Right now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors...

CPI Report Sparks Fed Rate Cut Hopes as Inflation Slows to 2.9%


On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rolled out its latest consumer-price index (CPI) report, revealing a 2.9% increase over the past 12 months through July—falling just short of economists’ 3% forecast. This data nudged CME futures metrics upward, reflecting growing market...

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