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Nalezeno "Prediction markets": 186

Will RFK Jr. Debate Trump or Biden? Probably Not, Prediction Market Says

20.5.2024
Plus: Which cat-themed meme coin will hit $1 billion first?

Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket

14.5.2024
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding close to $75 million

Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls

13.5.2024
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election

U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts

10.5.2024
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts

Polymarket Bets Reflect Low Confidence in Ethereum ETF Approval by SEC

7.5.2024
According to a wager on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission currently stands at just 7%. This forecast commenced in January with a 76% probability of approval...

Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets

6.5.2024
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban

Eigenlayer releases EIGEN white paper, bans airdrop for US users

29.4.2024
The EIGEN token will be used to form consensus around data that is off-chain but easily verifiable, such as whether someone won a bet or adequately stored data

Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet

29.4.2024
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states

Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job

22.4.2024
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don't think Taylor Swift will break her record

Which Crypto Projects Will Airdrop Next? Prediction Markets Are Placing Bets

8.4.2024
Eigenlayer has a 75% chance of sending users free tokens by June 30, the odds on Polymarket signal. Plus: Kalshi lands a big Wall Street account

Who Will Trump Pick for Veep? Polymarket Gives Tim Scott Best Odds: Prediction Markets

1.4.2024
Plus: Free money? "Democrat wins New York" contract trades at 90 cents on the dollar

How to Design Better On-Chain Governance

27.3.2024
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets

How Many Years Will SBF Get? Jury's Out on Betting Platform Polymarket

25.3.2024
Plus: Tesla's delivery numbers will fall short of record, Kalshi traders signal; "Ghostbusters" fandom underestimated

U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets

12.3.2024
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam said his agency will propose a rule in the coming months to establish new regulations for prediction markets

Paradigm Backs Prediction Market in Legal Battle Against CFTC

8.2.2024
Paradigm has stepped up to back Kalshi in its legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), defending the right to offer prediction markets in the U.S. Congressional elections, and arguing for the critical role such markets play in risk management and information...

Paradigm Advocates for Prediction Markets as Hedge Against Crypto Regulatory Risks

6.2.2024
Venture capital firm Paradigm has filed a legal brief in support of the prediction market platform Kalshi, which is currently in a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a “friend-of-the-court” brief filed recently, Paradigm, despite not being...